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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.